The playoff race is heating up and we have a loaded slate tonight with five games and three with a one-possession spread. Last time wasn’t so great but there are still plenty of games to be played and plenty of bets to be made. Remember that lineup changes and injury news is an ever-evolving beast that needs to be tracked constantly if you want to stay ahead of the market. Another way is by shopping around for the best odds. Different books will have different odds. The difference between -110 and +100 may seem small, but those little differences add up quickly over the entire season. Now let’s get to today’s best bets. Here are our favorite WNBA player prop bet picks and predictions for Wednesday’s slate of games.
Last time: 0-2 | Season: 14-11
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kelsey Mitchell Under 19.5 Points (-114)
While the Fever plays at home in an imperative game to win in their chase to the playoffs, don’t go crazy betting their Overs today as they face the 22-7 Connecticut Sun. Indiana’s offense has been awesome of late but the Sun’s stop unit has been equally ranked. The Sun defense has traveled well, third on the road in the league since August and second overall in that same time frame. What stands out about Connecticut is their perimeter defense. Across the entire season, opponents have only made six threes a game. In their last five games, that number is even lower with opponents failing to scrape 20 attempts from deep a game. The Sun play at the slowest pace in the league and will bring down the Fever’s attempts across the board. That’s why I’m fading Kelsey Mitchell tonight. She has broken 20 points in each of her last four games which is an inflated line from her 18.2 points per game seasonal averages. A lot of her scoring comes from beyond the arc, attempting over 10 perimeter shops a game since the All-Star Break. She can sling it for sure but the opportunity simply will not be there against Connecticut. Either they will limit her looks, or the pacing will slow down the opportunity to even shoot as much. You could also go Under on Caitlin Clark’s totals if you’d like but I see a bit more value with Mitchell. This line is insanely high and I don’t know if we will see it as high for the rest of the season so I am loving the Under here.
Ariel Atkins Under 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-114)
The season has been anything but great for the Washington Mystics with an 8-22 record after starting the season 0-12. Ariel Atkins has been a star, however, averaging over 15 points a game with over three boards and three assists a game. Tonight, I expect her to stick under her averages on the road in Chicago. Primarily, the Sky have been one of the slowest teams in the W this season and have only slowed down since the All-Star Break. The Sky’s defense is decent but gets a nice uptick when playing at home this season from seventh-ranked to fifth. Washington on the other hand goes from bad to worse, ranking dead last in offensive efficiency when playing away from home. After just playing 20 minutes in her last outing in Seattle, I do expect a bounceback game for Atkins but I don’t expect it to exceed 19 in this combo prop. Only once in her last five has she gone over her seasonal scoring averages and her rebounding numbers haven’t made up for it. Given the slower pace, I’m surprised where this prop sits and am happy taking mostly Under across the board for tonight’s game.
Breanna Stewart 25+ Points (+255)
We are going a little riskier here as the New York Liberty face off against the Los Angeles Sparks in a game where New York should dominate as a double-digit favorite. The Liberty have scored 90-plus points in each of their three matchups against the Sparks, going over the century mark a few weeks ago in Los Angeles. Now it’s time to run it back and I’m going to bet that New York’s powerhouse offense will dominate once more. Their offensive rating against the Sparks is not only the best in the league against LA but it is second in the league for any team against any opponent this season. Pure domination. So how does Breanna Stewart play into this? I’m so glad you asked. In each of her last two matchups against Los Angeles, Stewart has reached the 25-point mark with 27 and 33 points. She didn’t even attempt her normal number of shots in the most recent outing but was still money from deep. The Sparks play fast and have been the highest-paced team in the W throughout August so New York will only be given an extra opportunity to flex on Los Angeles’ second-worst defensive ranking. Stewart won’t need to exactly have a spectacular game, but is set up nicely to have a breakout effort. At the odds of +255, this is an easy buy.
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