Thursday was another profitable day for me from an MLB Player Prop Bet perspective, as Atlanta Braves slugger Austin Riley slugged a solo home run and cashed +125 odds to record an RBI, allowing us to salvage a 1-1 day. With another loaded 15-game MLB slate on tap for Saturday, there are plenty of player prop wagers to choose from, and I have identified the top three that I am most confident in.
Read on for our Top MLB Player Prop Bet picks for Saturday.
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
- Top Bettor Picks for MLB
- MLB PrizePicks Cheat Sheet
Saturday’s Best MLB Player Prop Bet Picks
Let’s dive into our top MLB player prop bet picks on Saturday’s slate of games.
(MLB player prop bet odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Carlos Rodon Under earned 2.5 runs (-170)
Carlos Rodon is coming off an impressive road start at hitter-friendly Fenway Park where he limited the Boston Red Sox to two earned runs on five hits in 6 1/3 strong innings for his second victory in as many starts. Rodon may have found a recipe for success going forward in his last start, as he generated 25 whiffs, and an impressive 69.2% whiff rate off his changeup.
Rodon appears to be well past a poor five-start stretch from June 15 to July 9 where he allowed 27 runs in 23 innings, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last three starts. And outside of that poor mid-summer stretch, the southpaw has pitched to a 2.87 ERA and has a double-digit K/9 rate, so he should prove to be too much for a Toronto Blue Jays lineup that ranks 24th in the majors in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers.
With Toronto’s team total being set at 3.5 runs, that makes Rodon’s Under earned runs a great value play even at a somewhat steep price.
SP Leaders – Last 300 Pitches Thrown
Most Whiffs:
Blake Snell: 66 Whiffs
A.J. Puk: 58 Whiffs
Carlos Rodon: 57 Whiffs
Hayden Birdsong: 55 Whiffs
Garrett Crochet: 55 Whiffs
Bailey Ober: 53 Whiffs
Cole Ragans: 52 Whiffs
Dylan Cease: 52 Whiffs
Max Scherzer: 51 Whiffs— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) July 30, 2024
Jordan Montgomery Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130)
Arizona Diamondbacks southpaw Jordan Montgomery is not known as a strikeout pitcher, as he ranks in the fourth percentile in strikeout rate, and an even worse second percentile in xBA. Montgomery’s 14.2% strikeout rate is on pace to be by far the worst of his career, but we expect positive regression in that metric since he has finished a season below 21.4% just one other time in his career. This start against the Pittsburgh Pirates is an excellent bounce-back opportunity, as the Pirates have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors against southpaws (25.1%).
Montgomery has held current Pirates hitters to a .200/.243/.355 slash line in 70 combined at-bats, and 16 of those 70 at-bats (22.9%) ended in strikeouts. He has recorded two or fewer strikeouts in three consecutive starts, but when he has thrown at least five innings this season, he has recorded four-plus strikeouts in five of 10 starts.
Montgomery has reached five or more strikeouts in just two of his last 10 starts, but I am happy to back him at plus-money odds to reach that total against the strikeout-happy Pirates.
Steven Kwan Over 0.5 runs (+115)
Steven Kwan leads all Guardians hitters in batting average (.316) and on-base percentage (.371) against right-handed pitching this year, which are impressive numbers considering his batting average dropped 30 points after batting just .250 in July. However, he is an outstanding table-setter at the top of Cleveland’s lineup, and has scored a run in four of the last eight games against teams currently over .500. Considering Eflin allowed a season-high 10 hits in his last start, I expect Kwan to find his way on base at least of couple of times, which should provide plenty of RBI chances for big hitters like Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor behind him.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.
