The Best MLB Home Run Predictions & Picks for Dinger Tuesday

Jul 12, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; Colorado Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle (9) hits a two run home run in the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY SportsAfter a week off due to the MLB All-Star break, we are back with another Dinger TuesdayThree different sportsbooks are offering bettors some sort of home run bonus to take advantage ofCheck out the 4 players I am predicting will hit a home run today and how I am utilizing each of my home run bonuses this Dinger Tuesday

With Dinger Tuesday being ripped away from us last week as a result of the MLB All-Star Game being played, I was extremely excited to dive back into the home run props today. But then I started looking at the matchups for today last night, and then opened up the sportsbooks today to see one of our home run bonuses has been effectively destroyed.

Sadly, DraftKings has taken their “HomerFest” bonus from us. Apparently watering it down a little two weeks ago (the last Dinger Tuesday) – forcing larger minimum bet requirements – just wasn’t enough. We are still getting a home run bonus from DraftKings today, but it’s just a +100 odds surge to use on any player. Caesars has stuck with their recent change of only offering one 25% profit boost for a home run market instead of two.

However, it’s the matchups today that are a little more concerning on my end. There are a lot of pitchers taking the mound today that do not give up home runs. Looking to the handful of pitchers who do give up bombs, half of them are pitching against teams who don’t hit bombs. Then we also have some other good home run matchups being spoiled by ballparks that are not home run friendly. We even have a few games with some weather concerns as well.

So, with all that in mind, today is not going to be a day where I’m betting 7-9 players to hit a home run, as I have certain days in the past. Don’t read that as me not being confident in the home runs I am betting today, though! We’re hitting on the home run picks below, just as I did last time out with Josh Naylor.

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (+260 at FanDuel)

I will be the first to say, Ohtani is a pretty chalky pick with the Dinger Tuesday bonus at FanDuel. But I can’t look away from him. The Dodgers’ DH faces right-hander Jordan Hicks of the Giants tonight, and he has been smashing righties all season. Ohtani averages .321 against RHP and 23 of his 30 home runs have come against righties too.

Hicks isn’t giving up a ton of home runs this season, but he has watched five balls fly over the fence in his last four starts. He also hasn’t made it past the fifth inning in any of his last seven starts, which was a feat he had accomplished in three of his first six starts this season. It feels like the league is catching up with the fastball-heavy pitcher. Thankfully, if Hicks does get the hook early, the Giants’ bullpen has given up the sixth-most home runs in the Majors.

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The NL MVP favorite has seen Hicks four times in the past and has two hits in those plate appearances. The Dodgers saw Hicks back on May 13, where Mookie Betts led the game off with a home run and LA would add six more hits, while tacking on two earned runs to Hicks’ stat line. Jason Heyward is the only player projected to be in the lineup tonight who has taken Hicks deep, but many Dodgers hit him well.

Landon Knack, on the other hand, loves giving up home runs. Knack’s HR/9 rate is 1.85 and he has given up five big flies in his last three starts. He has given up at least one home run in six of his eight starts this season. While San Francisco doesn’t look like a home run team on the surface, it’s largely because their home park is terrible for home runs. They are actually eighth in the MLB in home runs hit on the road, which is where they’ll be tonight (in LA, which just so happens to be a great home run park).

No one in the Giants lineup has much experience against Knack. Jorge Soler has the most plate appearances against the right-hander with just three. Luis Matos, who isn’t projected in the lineup today, is the only player with a home run off Knack. But that won’t be the case after tonight. I would totally understand if you wanted to shoot for a bigger payout here with any of Heliot Ramos, Matt Chapman, or Jorge Soler. I think all three of those guys have a good chance of hitting a home run tonight, and I’ll be collecting bonus bets for each one of them.

We’re also expecting light winds blowing out to center field, leading to better carry in all directions. This is my favorite home run game of the night.

2. Brenton Doyle, Rockies (+520 at FanDuel)

The second of my two FanDuel Dinger Tuesday picks is Brenton Doyle. If simply looking at the pitchers in this matchup, you’d likely be drawn to bet a Boston bat to hit a home run. Ty Blach, the left-hander who will take the mound for Colorado with German Marquez headed to the IL, has a 1.53 HR/9 rate, versus, the righty who Boston will send out, Cooper Criswell’s 1.09.

However, three of the hottest bats in the league right now, in terms of hitting home runs, are all in the Rockies lineup. Michael Toglia has six home runs in his last 40 ABs, Brenton Doyle has five HRs in his last 42 ABs, and Ezequiel Tovar has four in his last 45 ABs.

Though Criswell hasn’t given up a ton of home runs this season, he is sporting a 4.50 ERA and just gave up five earned runs in his most recent start (July 12), which was his first start in nearly a month after being sent down to Triple-A. With warm temperatures expected in Denver tonight, meaning the ball will carry even better, I like Brenton Doyle, who has hit 13 of his 16 home runs this season off RHP, to stay hot.

“It’s all starting to come together. Late bloomer is blooming in Colorado.”

Brenton Doyle has 9 HR and a 1.442 OPS in the month of July! 💥@markdero7 | @Rockies | #MLBCentral pic.twitter.com/IZBWnhM8we

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 22, 2024

On the other side, the Red Sox have hit the third-most home runs on the road in the MLB, which is where they’ll be tonight when they take on the Rockies. Looking at their 118 total home runs hit this season, 68 of them have come away from Fenway Park.

Rafael Devers, Dominic Smith, and Tyler O’Neill all have a couple/few plate appearances against LHP Ty Blach. Devers and Smith are both 2-of-3 against the righty, and O’Neill is 1-for-1. None of them have taken Blach deep, but Devers has a double.

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Sadly, the Red Sox don’t have that many right-handed bats in their lineup to take full advantage of Blach, who has been getting crushed by righties all season. Blach is allowing righties to hit .372 off him with an OPS of .994. With this being his first start since June 20 – he has been working out of the bullpen since then and hasn’t thrown more than 39 pitches in any outing – I wouldn’t expect we see Blach too long. (Thankfully, the Rockies pen is no stranger to giving up home runs as well.) I do expect him to be in there long enough for the likes of O’Neill and Connor Wong to take advantage, though.

3. Aaron Judge, Yankees (+255 at DraftKings)

With the DraftKings home run odds surge, I’m getting Aaron Judge to hit a home run tonight at +355. Judge sees Jose Quintana of the Mets tonight, a left-hander with a 1.5 HR/9 rate.

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The MLB’s home run leader has faced Quintana seven times in the past, and has two hits (one of those was a double) and a walk. Judge is hitting .315 off lefties this season and has nine home runs in 73 ABs vs LHP.

Quintana’s most recent start saw him give up four home runs to the Rockies, and he has three other starts this season where he has given up multiple home runs.

4.  Riley Greene, Tigers (+390 at Caesars)

Though there is a chance we see this game delayed, I can’t pass up betting Xzavion Curry to give up a home run. Curry’s HR/9 rate is a sky-high 2.12 and his ERA is 5.19. The Guardians’ RHP has struggled against righties, allowing them to hit .306 against him, but he has also given up three home runs in 35 ABs versus lefties.

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I like Riley Greene to add another home run for lefties against Curry tonight. Greene, a left-handed bat, is hitting .288 against righties and 13 of his 17 home runs this season have come against RHP.