Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Odds, Picks, Predictions & Lineups for 2024 Champions League Final
by Sascha Paruk in Soccer News
Updated May 31, 2024 · 8:20 PM PDT
Jul 23, 2019; Landover, MD, USA; Real Madrid forward Vinicius Junior (28) during the second half of a match in the International Champions Cup soccer series at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY SportsThe 2024 Champions League final takes place this Saturday, June 1, at Wembley Stadium in LondonFourteen-time champion Real Madrid takes on one-time champion Borussia Dortmund (1997)See the Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund odds, predictions, and projected lineups for Saturday’s UCL title game
The UEFA Champions League season comes to a close on Saturday when Spanish giants Real Madrid take on German underdogs Borussia Dortmund in the UCL final at Wembley Stadium in London, England, at 3:00 pm ET.
The Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund odds heavily favor the Spaniards lifting their record-extending 15th trophy but Dortmund has been defying the odds for much of their Champions League campaign.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline | Win the Trophy |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -160 | -320 |
| Borussia Dortmund | +425 | +245 |
| Draw | +320 | N/A |
Real Madrid is priced at -160 to win the title in regular time with Dortmund a +425 underdog and the draw listed at +320.
Madrid’s -160 odds carry a 61.54% implied win probability. At +425, Dortmund has just a 19.05% implied win probability in regular time, while the draw (+320) has a 23.81% implied probability.
The two-way odds to lift the trophy show Real Madrid at -320 (76.19%) and Dortmund at +245 (28.99%).
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Real Madrid’s Path to the UCL Final
Real Madrid’s road to the championship game was one of the more daunting paths in recent memory. Los Blancos went a perfect 6-0-0 in a fairly difficult quarter in the group stage, beating Napoli, Union Berlin, and Braga twice each with a +9 goal differential.
In the round of 16, they saw off a stiff challenge from German side, RB Leipzig, winning 2-1 on aggregate. The fates did Carlo Ancelotti’s team no favors in the quarterfinal draw, pairing Real Madrid against reigning UCL champions and back-to-back-to-back-to-back English Premier League-winners Manchester City. After dueling to a pair of thrilling draws (3-3 home, 1-1 away), Madrid outlasted City in penalties on foreign soil.
In the semifinals, Madrid was drawn against another German side, the Goliaths of the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich. After drawing in Munich (2-2) in the first leg of the semifinal, Madrid was a sizable favorite to advance heading into the second leg at home. But they found themselves trailing 1-0 with just two minutes of regular time remaining. That’s when supersub Joselu potted a brace within ten minutes of coming onto the pitch, scoring the tying goal in the 88th minutes and the eventual winner in stoppage time (90+1).
While the method of victory was stunning, Madrid was full value for the victory on the whole. The Expected Goals For (xGF) over 90 minutes were 2.76 to 0.56 in Madrid’s favor, according to xgscore.io.
Madrid has also been exceptional domestically, running away with the La Liga title by ten points over arch-rival Barcelona. Los Blancos lost just one game during La Liga play – 3-1 away at Atletico Madrid – plus another away to Atleti in the Copa Del Rey round of 16. In other words, Atleti is the only team to beat Real Madrid in a competitive fixture since May 2023.
Leading scorer Vinicius Junior has piled up 23 goals in 38 appearances across all competitions and is the current betting favorite to win the 2023-24 Ballon d’Or, sitting narrowly ahead of teammate (and former Dortmund star) Jude Bellingham.
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Borussia Dortmund’s Path to the UCL Final
After Bellingham moved to Real Madrid in June 2023, Dortmund – which finished runner-up in the 2022-23 Bundesliga table, tied on points with Bayern at 71 – was expected to take a step back. While die Schwarzgelben did fall down the Bundesliga table (fifth, 63 points), their run to the UCL final has been a masterpiece. Dortmund topped the “group of death”, picking up 11 points out of a possible 18 in home-and-aways against PSG, AC Milan, and Newcastle.
BVB got past Dutch champs PSV Eindhoven 3-1 on aggregate in the round of 16 before pulling off a small upset over Atletico Madrid in the quarterfinals (5-4 on aggregate). Dortmund was down 4-3 on aggregate with just twenty minutes remaining in the second leg, but a pair of goals just three minutes apart from Niclas Füllkrug (71′) and Marcel Sabitzer (74′) gave BVB a lead they would not relinquish.
In the semifinals, Dortmund was drawn against French powerhouse PSG. In one of the more stunning outcomes of the season, BVB held the Parisians scoreless over the entire 180-plus minutes, winning both the home and away legs 1-0.
Dortmund was extremely fortunate to keep back-to-back clean sheets against PSG. Kylian Mbappe and company generated 4.60 xGF over the course of the two legs without netting a single goal. Swiss keeper Gregor Kobel stopped eight shots on target but, in reality, PSG’s poor finishing was as much responsible for the clean sheets as Kobel was.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Expected Lineups
| Real Madrid | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois (GK) | Gregor Kobel (GK) |
| Daniel Carvajal (RB) | Julian Ryerson (RB) |
| Antonio Rudiger (CB) | Mats Hummels (CB) |
| Nacho Fernandez (CB) | Nico Schlotterbeck (CB) |
| Ferland Mendy (LB) | Ian Maatsen (LB) |
| Eduardo Camavinga (DMF) | Emre Can (RMF) |
| Toni Kroos (LMF) | Marcel Sabitzer (LMF) |
| Federico Valverde (RMF) | Jadon Sancho (LW) |
| Jude Bellingham (AMF) | Julian Brandt (SS) |
| Rodrygo (CF) | Karim Adeyemi (RW) |
| Vinicius Junior (CF) | Niclas Fullkrug (STR) |
The biggest lineup change for either side comes in the Madrid goal, where Thibaut Courtois takes over for Andriy Lunin, who had played every minute of the knockout stage. Courtois had been out for nine months due to injury before returning in a match against Cadiz in early May.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions
There is little doubt which team is going to carry the play. Real Madrid has more talent and considerably more offensive firepower. In terms of generating scoring opportunities, Dortmund was the second-best team on the pitch against both Atletico Madrid and PSG. Even PSV had more xGF in their round of 16 matchup.
That said, Dortmund hasn’t surrendered a goal in well over 200 minutes of Champions League play. I expect a very cautious approach from the Germans, especially early on, as they try to repeat the same script that allowed them to advance past a high-scoring PSG side. And if Dortmund does fall behind, they still have a litany of players capable of evening the score against a Madrid defense that hasn’t kept a clean sheet in its last five UCL games.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund picks:
First half under 0.5 (+220)Borussia Dortmund +0.5 (+125)
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