LA Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Picks, Player Props & Odds (July 30)
by Adam Spencer in MLB Baseball
Updated Jul 30, 2024 · 11:02 AM PDT
Jul 24, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (31) delivers to the plate in the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY SportsThe San Diego Padres (57-51) host the LA Dodgers (63-44) in NL West action on Tuesday night to kick off a brief 2-game rivalry series.Ace Tyler Glasnow (8-6, 3.47 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers, while the Padres counter with Matt Waldron (6-9, 3.64 ERA).Check out the section below for our favorite picks from tonight’s NL West showdown in San Diego.
The Dodgers and Padres are the top 2 teams in the NL West standings entering this short 2-game midweek series in San Diego. Both squads are 7-3 in their last 10 games, holding off the surging Arizona Diamondbacks (56-51) for the time being. With the Padres a half game up on the DBacks and 5.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West standings, these 2 games are super important. Tonight’s first pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET and the game can be seen on the MLB Network and regional broadcast partners.
LA Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Picks
LA Dodgers -1.5 (+130)Tyler Glasnow 7+ strikeouts (+150)
The Dodgers have the pitching advantage in this game, even if it’s not as wide as the names would make you think. Waldron has been surprisingly solid, but the Dodgers are loaded offensively. Current LA hitters are batting only .040 against Waldron, but they haven’t faced him all that much. Will Smith has faced Waldron 5 times, which is the most on the squad (he’s 0-for-5).
Still, you can only keep Smith, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez and company contained for so long. I think this is the night they break out against Waldron and put up some crooked numbers on the scoreboard. I’ll take the Dodgers to win by 2+ runs at +130 odds on bet365.
Tyler Glasnow’s over/under for strikeouts is set at 5.5. But the over is only -135. There’s not much value in that, especially for a guy with the kind of swing-and-miss stuff that Glasnow has. No, the Padres don’t strike out much as a team, whiffing just 6.72 times per 9 innings so far this year. That’s the best mark in baseball.
But back on May 10, Glasnow fanned a whopping 10 Padre hitters in 7 innings of work. He’s capable of dominance no matter who is on the other side. Thus, I’ll take the added value of Glasnow to have 7+ K’s tonight, which offers more enticing +150 odds on bet365.
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LA Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | -1.5 (+130) | -130 | O 7.5 (-115) |
| San Diego Padres | +1.5 (-155) | +110 | U 7.5 (-105) |
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Oddsmakers expect this to be a pretty even matchup. Even with Glasnow on the mound against Waldron, the Dodgers are only -130 moneyline favorites, with the Padres sporting +110 moneyline odds. If you think the Dodgers can win by 2+ runs, as I detailed above, there’s value in taking the +130 odds. Picking the Padres to win or lose by 1 run is -155 at bet365. The run total is set at over/under 7.5 runs, with the over at -115 and the under at -105.
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LA Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Starting Pitchers
| Tyler Glasnow | VS | Matt Waldron |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | Record | 6-9 |
| 3.47 | ERA | 3.64 |
| 33.0% | SO% | 21.1% |
While Waldron has pitched well in 2 starts against the Dodgers so far this year, the Padres are 0-2 in those games. He allowed 2 earned runs in 5.1 innings of work back on May 11 in a 5-0 San Diego loss. He allowed only 1 earned run in 5.0 innings on April 13, but the Padres fell 5-2.
May was a long time ago, though. Waldron hasn’t been having a great July, allowing 11 earned runs in 25 innings for a 3.96 ERA this month.
Glasnow pitched against the Padres in the season-opening series in South Korea, going 5 innings and allowing 2 earned runs in a 5-2 Dodgers win. He went 7 innings and struck out 10 while allowing only 1 run on May 10 against San Diego, but LA lost 2-1.
Basically, these guys have had some bad bullpen luck while pitching well against the other squad. Something’s got to give tonight, though.
Glasnow has one of the best strikeout rates in baseball among starters. Yes, he struggles with allowing big innings sometimes, but his strikeout totals have been consistent. Even though San Diego likes to put the ball in play, I think the Padres will have trouble doing that tonight.
Tune into the MLB Network at 9:40 p.m. ET tonight to find out which pitcher has the better outing.
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