Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 7 + College Week 8

Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 7 + College Week 8

October 22, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

It was almost a huge week:

Two upsets we highlighted in last week’s column happened (New Orleans over Atlanta in the NFL, Memphis over Ole Miss in college football)One more game went to overtime (Browns over Broncos)An additional two games came down to the fourth quarter (Chargers over Packers, USC over Notre Dame)

When the dust settled, two upsets was slightly lower than we expected (2.3). Season to date, the six upsets that have happened since we started this column are lagging our overall expectation (6.9) by about one game, but we’re also 0-for-2 in games decided in overtime.

This week we’re highlighting eight more football underdogs getting no respect from the public.

Upset Tracking Scoreboard

Games highlighted so far: 22Upsets the public picked: 1.48Upsets we expected: 6.9Upsets that happened: 6

(Note: All expectation numbers listed above are based on the numbers we publish in our upset watch blog posts.)

The Saints did have some very minor public support in their home game on Thursday night, with 14% of the public picking New Orleans to win after Atlanta struggled to pull out a win in overtime vs. Washington the previous week. But Drew Brees and co. were still highly underrated against a Falcons team that, despite a 5-0 record, hadn’t done particularly well against a weaker schedule.

Only 2% of the public took Ole Miss vs. the undefeated Memphis Tigers on the road, and the Rebels were 10.5 point favorites in Vegas. Despite beating Alabama several weeks ago, Ole Miss had shown inconsistent play recently, beating Vanderbilt by only 11 points at home and getting clobbered by Florida. Memphis, on the other hand, had shown sparks of a dynamic offense, albeit against weaker opponents, and may have had a big motivation edge. The final margin of victory was a surprise, but this wasn’t nearly as much of a shock as the public thought.

About Our Upset Watch Column

Rather than just present the most likely upsets to happen (you can find those on our premium NFL most likely upsets and college football most likely upsets pages), what we do in this column is highlight a series of games that generally meet two criteria:

The underdog is being almost criminally underrated by the general public, based on public picking estimates from our Football Pick’em Picks productThe teams playing are generally of high interest to lots of fans (mainly applies to college football)

What that means is that we still expect each of the individual teams we highlight in this column to lose (i.e. they all have under 50% win odds). But as a group, if a few of the following teams end up winning, that would qualify as a huge surprise according to the public’s expectations — but not to us.

Important note: All pick odds and betting lines quoted in this post were accurate as of 10/21, and may have changed since then.

NFL Upset Watch: Week 7 Games

Tennessee (home) over Atlanta

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Tennessee	vs. Atlanta	ATL by 3.5	37.3%	5.0%

Atlanta lost their first game of the season last week, and now go on the road again to face the Titans. While Tennessee has lost four in a row and got blown out by Miami last week, they were competitive in their previous two losses. We also have reason to question how good the Falcons really are, after losing by 10 at New Orleans last week, going to overtime vs. Washington in Week 5, and putting together three late come-from-behind victories to open the season.

Atlanta at Tennessee Matchup

Oakland (away) over San Diego

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Oakland	at San Diego	SD by 4.0	34.8%	10.0%

At 2-3, Oakland actually sits a half-game ahead of San Diego in the AFC West following a bye week. They’ve lost two games in a row, but those losses were by a combined eight points at Chicago and vs. Denver, and they’ve beaten a Ravens team that’s better than most people think. The Chargers are likely riding high in the public’s mind after almost ending Green Bay’s big home winning streak last week, but could be caught sleeping against a division rival with an extra week to prepare.

Oakland at San Diego Matchup

Baltimore (away) over Arizona

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Baltimore	at Arizona	ARI by 10.0	20.7%	5.0%

The Cardinals have been a feast or famine team this season, losing against St. Louis and Pittsburgh over the last three weeks, while beating four weaker NFC teams in the Saints, Bears, 49ers, and Lions. Sitting at 1-5, the Ravens clearly aren’t an elite team, but they may just be a very unlucky one early on, as all of their losses have come by six points or less. That luck could change at any time, and while Arizona’s deep passing game could expose Baltimore, stealing a road win here isn’t a crazy long shot.

Baltimore at Arizona Matchup

NY Jets (away) over New England

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
NY Jets	at New England	NE by 9.0	21.0%	6.0%

The Patriots have looked like a powerhouse thus far, with a +80 scoring differential over their opponents in five games. They haven’t yet won a game by less than a touchdown, though their defense also hasn’t been perfect, allowing 27 or more points twice. The Jets, however, boast one of the league’s top defenses, allowing the fewest points per game in the NFL (15.0). The last four games between these teams have all been decided by 3 points or less, with New York exceeding Vegas expectations in every one.

NY Jets at New England Matchup

College Football Upset Watch: Week 8 Games

Georgia Tech (home) vs. Florida State

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
GA Tech	vs. Florida St	FSU by 6.5	33.4%	3.0%

Georgia Tech has now lost five straight games, and in the public’s eye, probably has been given up for dead in terms of being a decent team. Our predictive ratings are more optimistic. The Yellow Jackets have lost to five teams ranked in the AP Top 25, and three of those losses were by eight points or less. Florida State comes in undefeated, but their offense has been inconsistent, and they’ve likely caught some good luck in terms of turnover margin, where they currently rank near the top of the FBS at +1.2 per game.

Florida State at Georgia Tech State Matchup

Illinois (home) vs. Wisconsin

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Illinois	vs. Wisconsin	WIS by 6.5	33.1%	5.0%

Sitting at 4-2, Illinois hasn’t declined like some people may have expected after losing head coach Tim Beckman just before the season. The Illini’s two losses both have come on the road against highly competitive teams, undefeated Iowa and one-loss UNC. And against common opponents (Iowa and Nebraska), Wisconsin’s performance has only been a few points better. The Badgers have played only one true road game to this point, barely edging Nebraska 23-21.

Wisconsin at Illinois Matchup

Miami (home) vs. Clemson

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Miami (FL)	vs. Clemson	CLEM by 6.5	28.7%	4.0%

Clemson remains undefeated, having played five of their six games at home thus far. The Tigers have won two games by three points or less, though, and one of those games was their lone road game against Louisville. So we wouldn’t quite characterize Clemson as an elite team; they’re certainly not at the level of Baylor or Alabama, and the public is overrating their chances here. Miami rebounded from a tough loss at Florida State to beat Virginia Tech by 10 points at home last week, and is currently 3-0 at home.

Clemson at Miami (FL) Matchup

Syracuse (home) vs. Pittsburgh

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Syracuse	vs. Pittsburgh	PITT by 6.5	30.6%	6.0%

Pitt finds itself at No. 25 in the AP Poll this week after beating Georgia Tech on the road. The Panthers are on a three-game winning streak, but those wins haven’t come easy, each by one touchdown or less against Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Georgia Tech. Syracuse is coming off three straight losses, but they’ve fared far better at home than away this season, including a competitive game against LSU. If the Orange can muster a similar game this weekend, they’d have a good shot.

Pittsburgh at Syracuse Matchup

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