2024 NASCAR at Michigan Odds, Predictions & Longshot Picks

Aug 6, 2023; Brooklyn, Michigan, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Justin Haley (31) during the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway. Mandatory Credit: Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY SportsNASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 takes place this Sunday at Michigan International SpeedwayDenny Hamlin leads the pack in the NASCAR Michigan odds, but Ford’s dominance at the track offers better valueBelow, find NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 predictions, odds, and longshot picks

The 2024 FireKeepers Casino 400 is just around the corner, and it’s shaping up to be must-see TV. Michigan International Speedway will host the event on August 18, 2024, with the action kicking off at 2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network.

As the Cup Series season winds down, every point matters, and drivers will be fighting tooth and nail to secure their spot in the playoffs. We’ve made NASCAR at Michigan predictions and identified value longshots to help you win some cash on Sunday

Here’s a look at the latest odds for the FireKeepers Casino 400 race winner, courtesy of BetMGM:

NASCAR at Michigan Odds

Odds as of August 16th, 2024, at BetMGM Sportsbook. Claim the BetMGM bonus code to make a bet on Sunday’s race.

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Denny Hamlin leads the pack at +550, which translates to an implied probability of 15.4%. But as any seasoned NASCAR bettor knows, the favorite doesn’t always come out on top.

Let’s dive into some predictions and see where the smart money lies for the FireKeepers 400.

NASCAR Michigan Predictions

It’s hard to bet against Denny Hamlin this weekend. The man knows how to get it done at Michigan, with six straight finishes of sixth or better, including a pair of third-place runs. However, we can’t ignore Ford’s dominance at this track.

The Blue Oval has been absolutely crushing it here, with nine straight victories. That’s why our top pick is a Ford to win at +210. With so much talent behind the wheel and a track that clearly suits their machines, backing Ford at plus-money is the smart play.

Ford's 9-race Win Streak at Michigan is the longest active Win Streak of any manufacturer at any track in the Cup Series.

A win for Ford this Sunday at Michigan would mark just the 4th time in Cup Series history that a manufacturer earned a 10-race Win Streak at a track. pic.twitter.com/4pAwuyWRRY

— Daniel Céspedes (@_DanielCespedes) August 16, 2024

You’ve got Ryan Blaney (+800), the reigning Cup Series champ who’s got a Michigan win under his belt. There’s Brad Keselowski (+800), the hometown hero who knows this track like the back of his hand. And don’t forget about Joey Logano (+1600), who’s always a threat on race day.

With so much talent behind the wheel and a track that clearly suits their machines, we don’t see a reason to buck the trend. Sure, Hamlin’s a great driver, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see him in Victory Lane. But at +550, the odds just don’t justify the bet when you’ve got so much value on the Ford side of things.

NASCAR at Michigan Best Bet

Ford to Win (+210 at MGM)

Other NASCAR Michigan Best Bets

In terms of other bets we like for the FireKeeprs Casino 400, Kyle Larson for top-five finish at -110 is solid value. Larson has three Michigan wins to his name and has been on fire at high-speed tracks this season.

Kyle Larson SPLIT THE MIDDLE.

Remembering his epic three-wide move to three-peat at Michigan in 2017. #NASCAR pic.twitter.com/WtH6AczyPv

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) August 16, 2024

Larson is also available at +375 right now in the NASCAR Cup Series odds, which is another bet to consider. Larson won in 2021 and will look to add another regular-season victory to his 2024 resume before the action really heats up.

Don’t sleep on Tyler Reddick (+800) this weekend, either. Sure, his Michigan track record is a bit spotty, but the man’s been on a tear lately with six straight top-six finishes. His Toyota is fast, and at +115 for a top-five, he’s another value pick.

NASCAR FireKeepers Casino 400 Best Bets:

Kyle Larson top-five finish (-110 at DK)Tyler Reddick top-five finish (+115 at DK) 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Odds TrackerRead More

NASCAR Michigan Longshots

If you’re hunting for a bigger payday, take a stab at Erik Jones for a top-10 finish at +400. The Michigan native knows this track like the back of his hand and has finished better than 18th in five of his last six races here.

Fresh off a solid run at Pocono and a top-10 at Kansas, Jones is riding high after inking a multi-year extension with Legacy Motor Club. I think his chance of finishing inside the top-10 should be much higher than the implied probability of 20%.

Bubba Wallace at +2500 to win is another intriguing longshot. He’s shown he can hang at tracks like Michigan, snagging a second-place finish here in 2022 and a win at Kansas. Wallace has been on a hot streak with top-fives at Pocono and Indy, so he might just be peaking at the perfect time.

Finally, don’t overlook Chris Buescher at +275 for a top-five. The man’s the defending race winner and his team, RFK Racing, knows how to get the job done at Michigan. Buescher’s been impressive at similar tracks this year, with a fifth at Atlanta and a third at Sonoma.

NASCAR at Michigan Longshot Picks:

Erik Jones top-10 finish (+400 at DK & FD)Bubba Wallace to win (+2500 at FD)Chris Buescher top-five finish (+275 at Bet365)

 

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