College Bowl Games: Five Bowl Game Betting Angles to Consider

College Bowl Games: Five Bowl Game Betting Angles to Consider

December 27, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Jalen Hurts wants to remind you that big underdogs have made a big splash in bowl season (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)

College Bowl Season is here, along with the excitement and bragging rights that goes with it. It’s also an opportunity for those that like to participate in bowl pools or just have a little skin in the game when there is a game on the television. Today, we are going to focus on some interesting bowl game betting angles to consider as you look at matchups.

We’ll note that some trends have smaller sample sizes, given the nature of looking at around 40 games per year, so you can judge what you think is relevant versus what you think is not. If you want to look through all the bowl results, you can do your own research with our custom trends tool.

You can see all the 2019-2020 bowl game odds here, including point spreads, money lines, and point totals.

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Now to the bowl game betting angles. (All of these are for bowl games played through the 2018-2019 season and do not include any games from this bowl season).

Big Bowl Upsets

Bowl games have a reputation for being unpredictable. Motivations for playing in a game can vary, players can be suspended or sit out the game, and some teams are just more excited to be there.

Does the data support that bowl games have some big upsets? Well, in the games with the biggest point spreads, and longest money line odds for the underdog, the answer is yes.

Two of the four largest underdogs since 2008 have won outright (Oklahoma +613 vs. Alabama, and Texas Tech +644 vs. Arizona State, both in 2013). If you had wagered an equal amount on every bowl game underdog with a money line of +300 or more, you would be up +22.8 units since 2008. Those results come from just 17 wins by big underdogs across 65 games in 11 years.

This is a strategy, though, that will result in a lot of smaller losses in exchange for a few big hits. As the past results show, the favorites have won these games nearly 75% of the time.

Here is every game with a money line of +300 or more in a bowl game from 2008 to 2018:

Year	Bowl Game	Underdog	Favorite	Spread	O/U Total	Money Line	Result	ATS Result
2014	New Mexico	TX El Paso	Utah State	10	45	302	Loss	No Cover
2018	Liberty	Oklahoma St	Missouri	10	71.5	302	Win	Cover
2008	Capital One	Michigan St	Georgia	9	57	305	Loss	No Cover
2011	Texas	Northwestern	Texas A&M	9.5	69	305	Loss	No Cover
2011	Poinsettia	LA Tech	TX Christian	10	55.5	305	Loss	Cover
2016	Holiday	Minnesota	Wash State	8.5	61	308	Win	Cover
2015	Outback	Northwestern	Tennessee	9.5	48.5	308	Loss	No Cover
2014	Music City	Notre Dame	LSU	8.5	50.5	310	Win	Cover
2017	Outback	S Carolina	Michigan	9	41.5	310	Win	Cover
2016	Military	Wake Forest	Temple	10.5	41.5	310	Win	Cover
2012	BCS Championship	Notre Dame	Alabama	10	39.5	311	Loss	No Cover
2010	New Mexico	TX El Paso	BYU	10.5	51	314	Loss	No Cover
2019	Famous Idaho Potato	Nevada	Ohio	10	62	315	Loss	Cover
2017	Cotton	USC	Ohio State	10	65	321	Loss	No Cover
2016	Birmingham	S Carolina	S Florida	10	58	321	Loss	Cover
2012	Capital One	Nebraska	Georgia	9.5	62	322	Loss	No Cover
2009	New Mexico	Wyoming	Fresno St	10	54.5	326	Win	Cover
2012	Famous Idaho Potato	Toledo	Utah State	10	59.5	330	Loss	No Cover
2008	St. Petersburg	Memphis	S Florida	10.5	57	330	Loss	No Cover
2018	Cotton	Notre Dame	Clemson	10.5	58	330	Loss	No Cover
2016	New Mexico	TX-San Ant	New Mexico	9	54	336	Loss	Cover
2016	Music City	Nebraska	Tennessee	9.5	59	336	Loss	No Cover
2015	Cotton	Michigan St	Alabama	10	45.5	336	Loss	No Cover
2013	BCS Championship	Auburn	Florida St	11.5	67	336	Loss	Cover
2008	Sugar	Utah	Alabama	9.5	45	340	Win	Cover
2008	Emerald	Miami (FL)	California	10	50.5	340	Loss	Cover
2016	Heart of Dallas	North Texas	Army	10.5	47	340	Loss	Cover
2009	Sun	Stanford	Oklahoma	10	53.5	346	Loss	Cover
2018	Famous Idaho Potato	W Michigan	BYU	10	52	346	Loss	No Cover
2008	Rose	Penn State	USC	10	44.5	355	Loss	No Cover
2010	Holiday	Washington	Nebraska	11.5	54.5	358	Win	Cover
2009	Hawaii	S Methodist	Nevada	10.5	69.5	361	Win	Cover
2017	Peach	Central FL	Auburn	10.5	66	367	Win	Cover
2009	Sugar	Cincinnati	Florida	12	59.5	377	Loss	No Cover
2019	Motor City	Eastern Michigan	Pittsburgh	12	50.5	380	Loss	Cover
2019	Peach	Oklahoma	LSU	12.5	75	385	Loss	No Cover
2012	Fight Hunger	Navy	Arizona St	13	54.5	385	Loss	No Cover
2017	Independence	S Mississippi	Florida St	13	48.5	393	Loss	No Cover
2016	Peach	Washington	Alabama	12.5	50.5	396	Loss	No Cover
2012	Texas	Minnesota	Texas Tech	13	55	400	Loss	Cover
2013	Chick-Fil-A	Duke	Texas A&M	13.5	75.5	403	Loss	Cover
2015	Liberty	Kansas St	Arkansas	13.5	56.5	418	Loss	No Cover
2015	Independence	Tulsa	VA Tech	14	62	422	Loss	Cover
2012	Hawaii	S Methodist	Fresno St	13	62.5	423	Win	Cover
2011	Insight	Iowa	Oklahoma	13.5	58	431	Loss	No Cover
2011	Maaco Las Vegas	Arizona St	Boise State	14	65	439	Loss	No Cover
2016	St. Petersburg	Miami (OH)	Miss State	14.5	57.5	439	Loss	Cover
2019	Gasparilla	Marshall	Central Florida	15.5	59.5	440	Loss	No Cover
2008	Alamo	Northwestern	Missouri	14	66	445	Loss	Cover
2018	Sugar	Texas	Georgia	12.5	59.5	450	Win	Cover
2012	Sugar	Louisville	Florida	14	47	454	Win	Cover
2014	Foster Farms	Maryland	Stanford	14	44.5	457	Loss	No Cover
2012	Orange	N Illinois	Florida St	14.5	58	461	Loss	No Cover
2016	Miami Beach	Central Mich	Tulsa	13	67.5	464	Loss	No Cover
2013	Beef’O’Brady’s	Ohio	E Carolina	14.5	63	471	Loss	No Cover
2013	Alamo	Texas	Oregon	14.5	67	481	Loss	No Cover
2016	Famous Idaho Potato	Idaho	Colorado St	16	64.5	481	Win	Cover
2013	Pinstripe	Rutgers	Notre Dame	14.5	53	519	Loss	Cover
2016	Arizona	S Alabama	Air Force	14.5	54	519	Loss	No Cover
2013	Fiesta	Central FL	Baylor	17	74	519	Win	Cover
2019	LendingTree	Miami-OH	Louisiana	16	55	525	Loss	Cover
2019	Orange	Virginia	Florida	16.5	55	525	Loss	Cover
2018	Orange	Oklahoma	Alabama	14.5	80.5	526	Loss	Cover
2010	Fiesta	Connecticut	Oklahoma	14.5	53.5	548	Loss	No Cover
2010	Maaco Las Vegas	Utah	Boise State	15.5	57	562	Loss	No Cover
2013	Sugar	Oklahoma	Alabama	17	51.5	613	Win	Cover
2019	New Orleans	UAB	Appalachian State	17	48	625	Loss	Cover
2013	Holiday	Texas Tech	Arizona St	17	72	644	Win	Cover
2012	Heart of Dallas	Purdue	Oklahoma St	18	68	671	Loss	No Cover
2017	Boca Raton	Akron	Fla Atlantic	23	65	1211	Loss	No Cover

Goodbye, Coach

Is there any disadvantage when a coach leaves a program (either by taking a new job or getting fired) before a bowl game is played? The evidence suggests that there is no such systematic disadvantage. Or at least, to the extent it exists, it is accounted for in the point spread.

Going back over the last decade, there have been 46 times prior to this season that a coach left a program and the school had a different head coach for a bowl game than they had all season. The teams playing with a different head coach are 26-20 straight up, and 25-20-1 against the spread.

That’s not enough for us to say that you should actively play on a team with a new coach. It does suggest, though, that you should not freak out too much and lean against a team because they have a different coach. Every case is different.

Bad Bowl Game Rebounds

Bowl games feature blowouts, upsets, and some crazy results. But what happens a year later in a bowl game after a team was on the receiving end of a beat down or suffered a humiliating upset as a big favorite?

Since 2008, there have been 70 teams who have (1) lost a bowl game and failed to cover the spread by at least 17 points, and (2) returned to a bowl game the following season.

After removing the six matchups between two teams that both qualified, we are left with 58 teams. Those teams are 33-25 against the spread (56.9%) over that span. The rationale behind such an effect is that the players (and coaches) remember how the most recent bowl game went, and a team that suffered some humiliation may be more motivated in their bowl preparation a year later.

Over the last three years, such teams are on a scorching hot 18-4 run against the spread. (Of course, that means that before the last three years, these teams had a losing record against the spread, so the evidence that this trend is meaningful is not clear).

Underdogs who struggled the previous year perform better than favorites have. (Though we will note the sample sizes become even smaller). Underdogs who meet the criteria are 18-10 straight up and 18-9-1 against the spread since 2008. If you had wagered the money line on all underdogs who failed to cover the spread in the previous year’s bowl game by at least 17 points, you would be up +24.8 units in 28 games since 2008.

Underdogs this bowl season who failed to cover last year’s bowl game by at least 17 points include:

Western Michigan, +3.5 vs. Western Kentucky (Lost to BYU 49-18 in 2018 as 10-point dog)Michigan, +7 vs. Alabama (Lost to Florida 15-41 in 2018 as 4-point favorite)Temple, +4.5 vs. North Carolina (Lost to Duke 27-56 in 2018 as 3-point favorite)

Cold Weather Bowl Games are for the Dogs (and Overs)

Traditionally, college bowl games were played in warmer weather venues (compared to the rest of the country in winter). With the expansion of bowl games, though, we have seen a greater variety of locations start to host games. There is now a bowl game in Boise, Idaho and in New York City, for example.

Using data from Weather Spark, we pulled the average daily high temperature on January 1st in each of the bowl host cities. (Bowl games played in a dome were denoted as such as well). Then, we compared the spread and over/under results since 2008 based on the typical climate in the host cities in bowl season.

	SU			ATS				TOTAL
TEMPERATURE	W	L	WIN PCT	W	L	T	WIN PCT	O	U	N	OVER PCT
50 degrees and under	36	28	0.563	26	37	1	0.414	41	23	0	0.641
51 to 60 degrees	72	32	0.692	52	50	2	0.510	51	50	3	0.505
61 to 70 degrees	42	26	0.618	32	36	0	0.471	26	42	0	0.382
71 degrees and above	52	31	0.627	44	38	1	0.536	37	45	1	0.452
Dome Games	46	35	0.568	38	41	2	0.481	38	43	0	0.469
OVERALL	248	152	0.620	192	202	6	0.488	193	203	4	0.488

The cold weather venues (those with an average January 1st daily high of 50 degrees or lower) have resulted in more underdog covers and point totals going over the number compared to other bowl games. Underdogs have covered in 58.6% of the bowl games since 2008 at a colder venue. The point total has gone “over” in 64.1% of such games.

The coldest venues currently hosting a bowl game are:

Boise, Idaho (Famous Idaho Potato Bowl), 36 degreesBronx, New York (Pinstripe Bowl), 41 degreesAnnapolis, Maryland (Military Bowl), 45 degreesAlbuquerque, New Mexico (New Mexico Bowl), 47 degreesNashville, Tennessee (Music City Bowl), 49 degreesMemphis, Tennessee (Liberty Bowl), 50 degrees

Only four bowl games have featured at least 8 “Overs” in the last 11 years. Three of those bowl games with the highest “over” rates since 2008 are among the four coldest venues for bowl games, and two of them are the only bowl games played at high elevation. (The other is the New Orleans Bowl, which has gone over in 8 of the last 11 bowl games).

In games played at average temperatures above 60 degrees, meanwhile, the games have gone “under” the total 57.9% of the time since 2008. That includes every outdoor game played in Florida, Arizona, and Southern California, as well as the Hawaii and Bahamas Bowl.

Home Cooking?

If we count teams as playing at home if they are in the same metropolitan area as the bowl game (even if not played at the venue they play the majority of their true home games in the regular season), then teams that get to stay at home are 12-13 straight up and 12-13 against the spread since 2008.

That is to say, it seems as though the betting market properly prices the impact of teams in these situations.

Expand out, though, and there is some evidence that teams with a regional proximity edge can provide value.

We divided every bowl team since 2008 into four categories:

(1) playing in home metro area,(2) playing in home state,(3) playing in a state that neighbors their own home state, and(4) all others.

Teams that get to play in their home state, when playing against an opponent who is not from the same state or a neighboring state, are 52-37 straight up, and 46-41-1 ATS (52.8%).

Teams that get to play in a neighboring state, playing against an opponent not from that state or a neighboring state, are 56-39 straight up, and 50-44-1 ATS (53.2%).

Both of those situations are just above the 52.4% cutline for profitability (if we assume 10% vigorish). But let’s isolate it to underdogs who get to play near home, against opponents coming from further away.

Underdogs who are from the same state or a neighboring state to where the bowl game is played, when playing favorites who do not meet that criteria, are 32-34 straight up, and 38-26-2 ATS (59.1%). Despite being the betting underdogs, they have won nearly as many games as they have lost since 2008.

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