2018-19 College Basketball Preseason Projected Standings & Win Totals
November 6, 2018 – by David Hess
We published our official 2018-19 college basketball preseason ratings this weekend, which means we now have full 2018-19 college basketball preseason projected standings for all teams, including:
College Basketball Projected Conference Standings. Projected conference records & overall regular season records, plus conference regular season title odds and conference tournament win odds.Bracketology Projections. Odds to make the NCAA tournament, plus projected seeding, and lots more details. (One of our faves is the Bracketology By Conference page.)NCAA Tournament Bracket Predictions. Round by round advancement odds, including the chance of a team making the Sweet 16 or Final Four, or winning the title.
This is all data-driven, and automated, so it will update every morning throughout the season.
There’s a lot of info in the giant table below. You’ll find:
full conference standings projectionsprojected regular season recordsconference regular season win oddsconference tournament win odds
But first, let’s check out a few highlights from our 2018-19 college basketball preseason projected standings.
Projection Highlights
First, our projected winners for the major conferences:
American: Houston (28%)ACC: Duke (25%)Big 12: Kansas (45%)Big East: Villanova (45%)Big Ten: Michigan State (22%)Pac-12: Oregon (26%)SEC: Kentucky (27%)
That’s a lot of wide-open races. Most seasons, we project at least one major conference team as an odds-on favorite to win their conference. However, this season only Kansas and Villanova approach 50% odds, and no other team even reaches 30%.
Outside the major conferences, it’s a different story, with 6 teams projected with at least a 50% chance to take home a regular season conference title:
69% Gonzaga (West Coast)68% Stephen F Austin (Southland)66% Nevada (Mountain West)65% Montana (Big Sky)56% Northeastern (Colonial)51% South Dakota State (Summit)
On the other end of the spectrum is the Big Ten, where the favorite (Michigan State) only has a 21% chance to win the regular season title. An impressive nine teams have at least a 5% chance at the Big Ten crown.
ACC Schedule Favors North Carolina
The ACC doesn’t quite have as many contenders as the Big Ten, with only six teams having at least a 6% chance to win the regular season. However, no conference sports a stronger top three than the ACC, with #1 Duke, #3 UNC, and #4 Virginia.
Despite UNC and Virginia being virtually tied in our preseason predictive ratings, UNC is well ahead of Virginia in conference win odds:
25% Duke24% North Carolina19% Virginia
The main reason for this is simple. The Tar Heels and Cavaliers face off only once this season, and the game is in Chapel Hill. UNC’s home court advantage in that game means they are not only favored to earn a one game lead over Virginia in that game, but also to own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Playing Virginia only once also gives the Tar Heels a slight schedule advantage over Duke, which helps explain their title odds being nearly even with Duke’s.
Conference USA’s New Group-Based Schedule
In case you haven’t heard, Conference USA is using a creative new scheduling system.
Each team plays 14 pre-scheduled games, just like any other conference. After those 14 games, teams are placed into groups of 4 or 5 teams based on the current standings (1-5, 6-10, 11-14). The teams then play 4 more games (2 home, 2 away) against the other members of their group.
Conference tournament seeding is determined by the full 18-game record, with one twist — teams are guaranteed a seed from their standings group. In other words, if the #5 team after 14 games goes 0-4 in the final group games, it still can’t fall below the #5 seed.
From the perspective of a fan, this schedule format is pretty fun. The best teams get to play more games against each other, and they do it at the end of the season, when the pressure is on.
From the perspective of someone who maintains our season projections code … let’s just say it’s less fun. There’s nothing remotely resembling this in any other conference, or any other sport we cover, so it’s going to take some significant work to correctly handle this format.
We hope to implement a more advanced solution in the near future, but for now, in the early part of the season we simply project every Conference USA team to go 2-2 over their final four conference games. It’s not perfect, but considering that the goal of this system is to create evenly-matched games down the stretch, it’s probably not going to be that far off from a “true” projection for most teams.
Once the exact matchups are set, we replace that 2-2 stretch with a real projection based on team power ratings. However, our logic to seed the CUSA conference tournament doesn’t yet take into account the “no rising or falling out of your standings group” rule. Once the exact tournament bracket is set, we load that into our database manually, but until that time the tournament projections may be based on seeding that’s slightly off. The shouldn’t make a huge difference in most cases, but we want to be transparent about it.
2018-19 College Basketball Preseason Projected Standings
For a lot more info on any team, click their name to view their season projections page. Once there, be sure to check out the Bracketology link at the top of the page.
Need a refresher on what info you can find in our automated bracketology projections, and how we created them? Check out our original post Introducing Our New Algorithmic Bracketology Projections and our review of what’s in our NCAA tournament bracket prediction pages.
[Note: Overall regular season record projections account for only already-scheduled games, so they will be missing some early season tournament games where opponents have yet to be determined.]
[Note #2: Our original projections had incorrect postseason ban info, with some ineligible teams being forecast with non-zero conference tournament win odds, and some eligible teams being forecast with 0% odds. We corrected the ban info, and re-ran the projections. Numbers for all teams may have shifted slightly due to random variation in the simulations.]
| 2018-19 TeamRankings Preseason College Basketball Conference Projections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Duke | 13.0 | 5.0 | 22.5 | 6.5 | 25.3% | 23.4% |
| N Carolina | 12.8 | 5.2 | 22.7 | 7.3 | 24.3% | 19.6% |
| Virginia | 12.5 | 5.5 | 21.4 | 6.6 | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| Florida St | 10.8 | 7.2 | 20.1 | 8.9 | 6.2% | 6.8% |
| Clemson | 10.8 | 7.2 | 20.2 | 8.8 | 7.2% | 6.9% |
| Syracuse | 10.7 | 7.3 | 20.9 | 9.1 | 7.0% | 7.4% |
| Miami (FL) | 10.3 | 7.7 | 19.3 | 8.7 | 4.3% | 6.3% |
| VA Tech | 9.3 | 8.7 | 17.9 | 10.1 | 2.3% | 3.5% |
| NC State | 9.0 | 9.0 | 19.7 | 11.3 | 2.0% | 2.6% |
| Notre Dame | 8.7 | 9.3 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 1.6% | 2.2% |
| Louisville | 7.8 | 10.2 | 15.7 | 14.3 | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| Boston Col | 6.2 | 11.8 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Wake Forest | 4.9 | 13.1 | 11.8 | 16.2 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| GA Tech | 4.5 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 18.0 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Pittsburgh | 3.9 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 17.9 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| America East Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Vermont | 11.8 | 4.2 | 18.7 | 11.3 | 46.8% | 43.0% |
| Stony Brook | 9.8 | 6.2 | 16.6 | 13.4 | 17.1% | 17.3% |
| Hartford | 9.3 | 6.7 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 12.1% | 12.8% |
| Albany | 8.6 | 7.4 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 9.3% | 9.6% |
| Maryland BC | 8.5 | 7.5 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 8.1% | 8.9% |
| Binghamton | 6.7 | 9.3 | 13.5 | 17.5 | 2.4% | 3.0% |
| N Hampshire | 6.7 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 16.6 | 2.3% | 2.9% |
| Mass Lowell | 6.1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 18.6 | 1.3% | 1.9% |
| Maine | 4.6 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 23.0 | 0.6% | 0.6% |
| American Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Houston | 12.8 | 5.2 | 23.7 | 7.4 | 27.7% | 22.5% |
| Cincinnati | 12.4 | 5.6 | 21.8 | 8.2 | 23.7% | 23.4% |
| Wichita St | 11.1 | 6.9 | 17.8 | 10.2 | 11.0% | 10.7% |
| S Methodist | 11.0 | 7.0 | 20.1 | 8.9 | 10.7% | 12.7% |
| Temple | 10.6 | 7.4 | 18.5 | 11.5 | 9.2% | 8.3% |
| Central FL | 10.4 | 7.6 | 18.1 | 9.9 | 8.7% | 10.3% |
| Connecticut | 9.5 | 8.5 | 18.1 | 11.9 | 4.5% | 5.4% |
| Memphis | 8.7 | 9.3 | 15.3 | 13.7 | 2.2% | 3.1% |
| Tulsa | 8.7 | 9.3 | 16.6 | 13.4 | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| Tulane | 5.8 | 12.2 | 10.1 | 16.9 | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| S Florida | 3.9 | 14.1 | 11.5 | 19.5 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| E Carolina | 3.1 | 14.9 | 9.1 | 20.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Atlantic 10 Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Davidson | 12.1 | 5.9 | 19.7 | 9.3 | 24.3% | 20.2% |
| Richmond | 11.0 | 7.0 | 20.1 | 9.9 | 14.0% | 13.6% |
| Dayton | 10.9 | 7.1 | 18.5 | 10.5 | 12.1% | 11.5% |
| VCU | 10.6 | 7.4 | 17.8 | 12.2 | 10.4% | 11.2% |
| Saint Louis | 10.3 | 7.7 | 18.1 | 12.9 | 9.4% | 9.1% |
| St Bonavent | 10.2 | 7.8 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| Rhode Island | 10.2 | 7.8 | 16.4 | 11.6 | 9.3% | 10.4% |
| St Josephs | 8.7 | 9.3 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 3.6% | 4.4% |
| Geo Mason | 8.5 | 9.5 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 3.0% | 4.0% |
| U Mass | 7.5 | 10.5 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 1.7% | 2.1% |
| Geo Wshgtn | 7.2 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 16.7 | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| La Salle | 7.1 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 16.0 | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| Duquesne | 6.9 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 16.2 | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| Fordham | 4.7 | 13.3 | 12.7 | 18.3 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Atlantic Sun Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Lipscomb | 12.1 | 3.9 | 18.8 | 10.2 | 40.9% | 39.8% |
| Fla Gulf Cst | 11.4 | 5.6 | 16.8 | 12.2 | 26.2% | 23.7% |
| Liberty | 10.1 | 5.9 | 18.4 | 11.6 | 14.3% | 15.6% |
| NJIT | 9.1 | 6.9 | 17.1 | 13.9 | 8.0% | 9.1% |
| N Florida | 8.9 | 7.1 | 14.3 | 15.7 | 7.5% | 8.3% |
| Jacksonville | 7.5 | 9.5 | 14.9 | 17.1 | 2.5% | 2.7% |
| Kennesaw St | 5.2 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 19.9 | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Stetson | 4.4 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 21.5 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| North Alabama | 4.2 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 22.6 | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Big 12 Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Kansas | 12.9 | 5.1 | 22.5 | 7.5 | 44.6% | 33.7% |
| W Virginia | 10.3 | 7.7 | 19.1 | 9.9 | 13.4% | 13.5% |
| Kansas St | 10.0 | 8.0 | 18.9 | 10.1 | 11.2% | 12.0% |
| Texas Tech | 9.4 | 8.6 | 19.8 | 10.2 | 7.9% | 9.4% |
| Iowa State | 8.9 | 9.1 | 18.0 | 11.0 | 6.4% | 7.7% |
| Baylor | 8.4 | 9.6 | 17.8 | 12.2 | 4.6% | 6.1% |
| Texas | 8.3 | 9.7 | 17.3 | 12.7 | 3.9% | 5.8% |
| TX Christian | 8.2 | 9.8 | 16.9 | 12.1 | 3.8% | 5.4% |
| Oklahoma | 7.9 | 10.1 | 15.2 | 13.8 | 3.8% | 5.1% |
| Oklahoma St | 5.6 | 12.4 | 12.6 | 16.4 | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| Big East Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Villanova | 12.9 | 5.1 | 22.1 | 6.9 | 44.6% | 32.9% |
| Marquette | 10.0 | 8.0 | 19.4 | 10.6 | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Butler | 9.7 | 8.3 | 18.2 | 10.8 | 9.3% | 10.4% |
| Creighton | 9.4 | 8.6 | 17.5 | 11.5 | 9.1% | 10.0% |
| St Johns | 9.4 | 8.6 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 7.9% | 10.0% |
| Xavier | 8.8 | 9.2 | 17.0 | 12.0 | 5.6% | 7.5% |
| Seton Hall | 7.9 | 10.1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 3.7% | 5.0% |
| Georgetown | 7.9 | 10.1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 3.2% | 4.9% |
| Providence | 7.9 | 10.1 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 3.5% | 5.0% |
| DePaul | 6.1 | 11.9 | 14.4 | 14.6 | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Big Sky Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Montana | 16.5 | 3.5 | 22.5 | 6.5 | 65.3% | 50.0% |
| Weber State | 12.8 | 7.2 | 18.6 | 10.4 | 12.3% | 13.9% |
| E Washingtn | 12.3 | 7.7 | 16.2 | 13.8 | 8.8% | 11.3% |
| N Colorado | 11.7 | 8.3 | 16.8 | 13.2 | 7.0% | 9.4% |
| Portland St | 9.8 | 10.2 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 2.3% | 4.2% |
| Idaho State | 9.4 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 15.9 | 1.5% | 3.5% |
| Idaho | 9.0 | 11.0 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 1.0% | 2.9% |
| Sac State | 8.3 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 16.4 | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| Montana St | 7.8 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 18.9 | 0.7% | 1.6% |
| S Utah | 6.9 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 18.5 | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| N Arizona | 5.6 | 14.4 | 7.5 | 22.5 | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Big South Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Radford | 11.1 | 4.9 | 16.5 | 12.5 | 30.0% | 29.0% |
| Winthrop | 10.7 | 5.3 | 17.9 | 11.1 | 26.2% | 25.1% |
| High Point | 9.0 | 7.0 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 8.5% | 9.6% |
| Gard-Webb | 8.8 | 8.2 | 16.0 | 15.0 | 7.4% | 6.6% |
| Hampton | 8.7 | 7.3 | 13.4 | 13.6 | 7.4% | 8.2% |
| Campbell | 8.7 | 7.3 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 7.8% | 7.5% |
| NC-Asheville | 8.2 | 7.8 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 5.6% | 5.8% |
| Charl South | 8.2 | 7.8 | 15.0 | 14.0 | 5.4% | 5.9% |
| SC Upstate | 5.8 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 20.0 | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Presbyterian | 5.5 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 19.4 | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Longwood | 4.4 | 11.6 | 10.6 | 20.4 | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Big Ten Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Michigan St | 13.2 | 6.8 | 21.2 | 8.8 | 21.8% | 19.5% |
| Michigan | 12.2 | 7.8 | 20.5 | 9.5 | 15.5% | 13.2% |
| Wisconsin | 12.1 | 7.9 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 13.3% | 12.1% |
| Purdue | 12.0 | 8.0 | 19.1 | 9.9 | 12.8% | 13.0% |
| Indiana | 10.9 | 9.1 | 19.3 | 11.7 | 7.1% | 7.4% |
| Iowa | 10.9 | 9.1 | 19.5 | 10.5 | 7.0% | 7.6% |
| Ohio State | 10.7 | 9.3 | 19.2 | 11.8 | 5.6% | 6.4% |
| Nebraska | 10.6 | 9.4 | 17.5 | 11.5 | 6.0% | 6.6% |
| Maryland | 9.9 | 10.1 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 4.8% | 5.7% |
| Penn State | 9.1 | 10.9 | 16.2 | 13.8 | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Northwestern | 9.0 | 11.0 | 16.4 | 12.6 | 1.9% | 2.9% |
| Minnesota | 7.6 | 12.4 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| Illinois | 7.1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 16.3 | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| Rutgers | 4.8 | 15.2 | 10.9 | 19.1 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Big West Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| UC Irvine | 11.9 | 4.1 | 20.8 | 9.2 | 42.6% | 36.2% |
| UC Davis | 10.1 | 5.9 | 18.3 | 11.7 | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| CS Fullerton | 9.7 | 6.3 | 15.4 | 12.6 | 14.3% | 15.0% |
| UCSB | 9.4 | 6.6 | 19.0 | 11.0 | 12.8% | 13.0% |
| Lg Beach St | 8.4 | 7.6 | 14.7 | 16.3 | 6.1% | 7.6% |
| Hawaii | 8.2 | 7.8 | 15.1 | 10.9 | 5.5% | 7.3% |
| UC Riverside | 5.9 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 18.8 | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| Cal Poly | 5.5 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 18.5 | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| Cal St Nrdge | 2.8 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 24.0 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| CAA Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Northeastrn | 14.0 | 4.0 | 20.3 | 7.7 | 55.6% | 42.7% |
| Col Charlestn | 10.5 | 7.5 | 17.8 | 11.2 | 9.8% | 11.6% |
| Wm & Mary | 10.4 | 7.6 | 16.7 | 13.3 | 10.9% | 12.0% |
| Hofstra | 10.3 | 7.7 | 18.6 | 12.4 | 9.2% | 11.1% |
| NC-Wilmgton | 9.2 | 8.8 | 16.3 | 14.7 | 5.2% | 7.0% |
| James Mad | 8.4 | 9.6 | 16.6 | 14.4 | 3.0% | 4.9% |
| Towson | 8.1 | 9.9 | 14.1 | 13.9 | 2.8% | 4.4% |
| Delaware | 7.6 | 10.4 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 2.2% | 3.4% |
| Elon | 7.0 | 11.0 | 14.1 | 16.9 | 1.2% | 2.5% |
| Drexel | 4.5 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 21.6 | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| CUSA Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| W Kentucky | 12.8 | 5.2 | 20.1 | 8.9 | 37.6% | 33.4% |
| Old Dominion | 11.6 | 6.4 | 18.6 | 10.4 | 18.7% | 15.8% |
| Middle Tenn | 11.3 | 6.7 | 17.8 | 11.2 | 13.0% | 14.8% |
| Marshall | 10.5 | 7.5 | 17.9 | 13.1 | 8.6% | 10.3% |
| LA Tech | 10.2 | 7.8 | 18.6 | 12.4 | 8.1% | 7.2% |
| North Texas | 9.8 | 8.2 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 5.6% | 5.0% |
| UAB | 9.7 | 8.3 | 17.5 | 11.5 | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| TX-San Ant | 8.5 | 9.5 | 14.3 | 13.7 | 1.3% | 2.3% |
| TX El Paso | 8.3 | 9.7 | 13.6 | 14.4 | 1.0% | 1.8% |
| S Mississippi | 8.0 | 10.0 | 13.9 | 15.1 | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| Florida Intl | 7.9 | 10.1 | 16.2 | 14.8 | 0.6% | 1.3% |
| Fla Atlantic | 6.6 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 17.2 | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Charlotte | 5.9 | 12.1 | 9.6 | 18.4 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Rice | 4.9 | 13.1 | 10.3 | 20.7 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Horizon League Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Wright State | 12.5 | 5.5 | 19.8 | 10.2 | 32.2% | 28.0% |
| N Kentucky | 12.3 | 5.7 | 20.9 | 10.1 | 30.4% | 26.4% |
| IL-Chicago | 9.9 | 8.1 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 9.9% | 10.8% |
| WI-Grn Bay | 9.4 | 8.6 | 13.9 | 16.1 | 7.1% | 8.3% |
| Oakland | 9.3 | 8.7 | 15.3 | 16.7 | 6.9% | 8.4% |
| IUPUI | 8.9 | 9.1 | 14.7 | 15.3 | 5.3% | 6.6% |
| WI-Milwkee | 8.6 | 9.4 | 13.6 | 16.4 | 4.2% | 5.6% |
| Cleveland St | 7.9 | 10.1 | 13.6 | 17.4 | 2.7% | 3.9% |
| Youngs St | 5.7 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 20.9 | 0.7% | 1.1% |
| Detroit | 5.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 22.6 | 0.5% | 0.9% |
| Ivy Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Harvard | 9.9 | 4.1 | 18.9 | 9.1 | 35.4% | 28.1% |
| U Penn | 9.7 | 4.3 | 17.4 | 9.6 | 31.2% | 26.0% |
| Yale | 8.6 | 5.4 | 16.3 | 10.7 | 17.8% | 28.6% |
| Princeton | 7.7 | 6.3 | 14.8 | 12.2 | 9.7% | 9.8% |
| Brown | 5.7 | 8.3 | 14.6 | 15.4 | 2.3% | 3.0% |
| Columbia | 5.7 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 14.7 | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| Cornell | 4.6 | 9.4 | 11.4 | 18.6 | 0.9% | 1.1% |
| Dartmouth | 4.2 | 9.8 | 10.7 | 17.3 | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| MAAC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Rider | 13.0 | 5.0 | 19.5 | 9.5 | 38.0% | 30.4% |
| Iona | 12.0 | 6.0 | 17.1 | 10.9 | 22.3% | 19.7% |
| Canisius | 11.1 | 6.9 | 15.8 | 12.2 | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Monmouth | 10.8 | 7.2 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 11.8% | 12.6% |
| St Peters | 10.0 | 8.0 | 16.1 | 13.9 | 7.2% | 7.6% |
| Fairfield | 7.6 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 17.8 | 1.8% | 2.7% |
| Niagara | 7.4 | 10.6 | 12.5 | 17.5 | 1.3% | 2.4% |
| Quinnipiac | 7.2 | 10.8 | 12.5 | 16.5 | 1.2% | 2.2% |
| Siena | 7.1 | 10.9 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 1.0% | 5.4% |
| Manhattan | 6.5 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 19.3 | 0.6% | 1.2% |
| Marist | 6.5 | 11.5 | 10.1 | 18.9 | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| MAC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Buffalo | 13.6 | 4.4 | 21.4 | 8.6 | 48.7% | 36.5% |
| Ball State | 10.9 | 7.1 | 17.2 | 11.8 | 12.0% | 12.8% |
| Toledo | 10.8 | 7.2 | 18.5 | 10.5 | 12.9% | 13.6% |
| E Michigan | 10.0 | 8.0 | 17.8 | 13.2 | 7.8% | 9.7% |
| Kent State | 9.4 | 8.6 | 18.0 | 13.0 | 5.3% | 6.8% |
| Ohio | 8.7 | 9.3 | 15.6 | 14.4 | 3.6% | 5.0% |
| Akron | 8.2 | 9.8 | 15.3 | 13.7 | 2.5% | 3.6% |
| Central Mich | 8.2 | 9.8 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 2.3% | 3.7% |
| N Illinois | 7.4 | 10.6 | 14.3 | 16.7 | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| Miami (OH) | 7.0 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 16.3 | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| Bowling Grn | 7.0 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 15.8 | 1.1% | 1.9% |
| W Michigan | 6.6 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 17.3 | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| MEAC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Norfolk St | 11.4 | 4.6 | 16.1 | 11.9 | 33.4% | 26.5% |
| NC Central | 10.8 | 5.2 | 16.1 | 12.9 | 21.5% | 20.3% |
| Howard | 10.1 | 5.9 | 15.8 | 14.2 | 16.5% | 16.6% |
| Beth-Cook | 9.5 | 6.5 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 11.9% | 13.4% |
| Morgan St | 8.4 | 7.6 | 12.6 | 16.4 | 5.4% | 6.2% |
| Maryland ES | 7.4 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 19.9 | 2.4% | 3.9% |
| NC A&T | 7.3 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 19.0 | 2.1% | 3.0% |
| S Car State | 7.2 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 21.0 | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| Savannah St | 6.6 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 21.0 | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| Coppin State | 6.5 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 23.4 | 1.4% | 2.1% |
| Delaware St | 5.5 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 20.6 | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Florida A&M | 5.2 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 23.1 | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Mountain West Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Nevada | 15.4 | 2.6 | 25.5 | 4.5 | 65.9% | 53.1% |
| San Diego St | 12.9 | 5.1 | 21.7 | 7.3 | 17.5% | 18.2% |
| Fresno St | 11.0 | 7.0 | 18.6 | 9.4 | 5.7% | 7.8% |
| New Mexico | 10.5 | 7.5 | 17.9 | 11.1 | 4.4% | 5.9% |
| Boise State | 10.5 | 7.5 | 17.7 | 11.3 | 3.8% | 5.4% |
| UNLV | 9.3 | 8.7 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 1.9% | 7.2% |
| Utah State | 7.9 | 10.1 | 14.4 | 15.6 | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| Wyoming | 7.5 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 15.4 | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| Colorado St | 6.2 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 17.1 | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Air Force | 5.2 | 12.8 | 9.8 | 18.2 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| San Jose St | 2.6 | 15.4 | 6.4 | 21.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MVC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Loyola-Chi | 11.8 | 6.2 | 20.7 | 9.3 | 27.0% | 23.1% |
| Illinois St | 11.6 | 6.4 | 18.1 | 9.9 | 25.0% | 21.7% |
| Valparaiso | 10.9 | 7.1 | 17.1 | 10.9 | 17.9% | 16.8% |
| N Iowa | 9.6 | 8.4 | 16.2 | 12.8 | 9.3% | 10.2% |
| S Illinois | 9.2 | 8.8 | 16.3 | 13.7 | 7.7% | 8.6% |
| Bradley | 8.1 | 9.9 | 16.1 | 13.9 | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| Missouri St | 8.0 | 10.0 | 15.2 | 14.8 | 3.4% | 4.9% |
| Indiana St | 7.3 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 2.7% | 3.8% |
| Evansville | 7.1 | 10.9 | 14.3 | 16.7 | 2.0% | 3.3% |
| Drake | 6.3 | 11.7 | 12.7 | 17.3 | 1.1% | 2.1% |
| Northeast Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| St Fran (PA) | 12.4 | 5.6 | 16.5 | 11.5 | 33.0% | 31.0% |
| Wagner | 11.0 | 7.0 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 18.1% | 17.7% |
| Rob Morris | 10.8 | 7.2 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 16.3% | 16.1% |
| LIU-Brooklyn | 10.4 | 7.6 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 13.0% | 13.2% |
| F Dickinson | 9.4 | 8.6 | 14.6 | 15.4 | 8.2% | 8.7% |
| St Fran (NY) | 7.7 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 17.5 | 3.0% | 3.5% |
| Sacred Hrt | 7.7 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 19.1 | 2.7% | 3.4% |
| Central Conn | 7.3 | 10.7 | 11.2 | 18.8 | 2.5% | 2.7% |
| Bryant | 7.2 | 10.8 | 10.1 | 18.9 | 2.3% | 2.5% |
| Mt St Marys | 6.1 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 20.9 | 0.9% | 1.2% |
| Ohio Valley Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Belmont | 13.0 | 5.0 | 18.9 | 10.1 | 31.1% | 30.0% |
| Murray St | 12.9 | 5.1 | 19.6 | 9.4 | 29.4% | 25.3% |
| Jksnville St | 11.3 | 6.7 | 18.2 | 11.8 | 14.7% | 14.2% |
| Austin Peay | 10.6 | 7.4 | 17.4 | 12.6 | 9.9% | 10.0% |
| Morehead St | 9.3 | 8.7 | 13.8 | 15.2 | 5.6% | 7.0% |
| TN State | 8.6 | 9.4 | 14.1 | 15.9 | 2.4% | 3.6% |
| TN Martin | 8.2 | 9.8 | 13.6 | 15.4 | 2.6% | 3.2% |
| TN Tech | 7.7 | 10.3 | 14.0 | 17.0 | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| SE Missouri | 7.1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 18.0 | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| E Kentucky | 6.9 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 17.8 | 1.0% | 1.6% |
| E Illinois | 6.5 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 19.4 | 0.4% | 0.8% |
| SIU Edward | 5.9 | 12.1 | 10.7 | 18.3 | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Pac-12 Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Oregon | 12.2 | 5.8 | 21.5 | 8.5 | 25.6% | 23.7% |
| Arizona St | 11.9 | 6.1 | 20.3 | 9.7 | 20.7% | 19.0% |
| UCLA | 11.3 | 6.7 | 20.4 | 9.6 | 16.4% | 14.4% |
| Washington | 10.9 | 7.1 | 19.5 | 11.5 | 11.9% | 11.0% |
| USC | 9.9 | 8.1 | 18.3 | 11.7 | 7.6% | 8.0% |
| Arizona | 9.7 | 8.3 | 17.1 | 11.9 | 6.4% | 7.6% |
| Utah | 8.6 | 9.4 | 15.1 | 12.9 | 3.9% | 4.7% |
| Oregon St | 8.4 | 9.6 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 3.1% | 4.8% |
| Colorado | 8.3 | 9.7 | 15.5 | 12.5 | 3.2% | 4.2% |
| Stanford | 7.1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 16.0 | 1.0% | 1.8% |
| California | 5.4 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 17.9 | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Wash State | 4.4 | 13.6 | 11.9 | 18.1 | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Patriot Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Bucknell | 12.0 | 6.0 | 15.9 | 12.1 | 32.5% | 29.4% |
| Lehigh | 10.8 | 7.2 | 15.4 | 13.6 | 18.3% | 18.0% |
| Army | 9.9 | 8.1 | 17.3 | 13.7 | 11.3% | 11.8% |
| Colgate | 9.8 | 8.2 | 15.5 | 15.5 | 10.8% | 11.2% |
| Holy Cross | 9.0 | 9.0 | 13.2 | 16.8 | 8.2% | 8.4% |
| Boston U | 8.9 | 9.1 | 15.0 | 16.0 | 6.8% | 7.3% |
| Navy | 8.2 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 16.4 | 4.3% | 5.0% |
| American | 7.8 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 16.3 | 3.9% | 4.2% |
| Lafayette | 7.3 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 17.1 | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| Loyola-MD | 6.2 | 11.8 | 10.1 | 19.9 | 1.2% | 1.5% |
| SEC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Kentucky | 12.6 | 5.4 | 23.1 | 7.9 | 27.2% | 25.1% |
| Tennessee | 12.3 | 5.7 | 22.7 | 7.3 | 23.9% | 20.7% |
| Auburn | 11.2 | 6.8 | 20.5 | 8.5 | 13.7% | 12.7% |
| Florida | 10.9 | 7.1 | 18.8 | 10.2 | 11.7% | 12.3% |
| Miss State | 10.3 | 7.7 | 19.8 | 10.2 | 8.3% | 8.8% |
| Texas A&M | 9.6 | 8.4 | 19.1 | 11.9 | 4.7% | 5.2% |
| LSU | 8.3 | 9.7 | 16.8 | 12.2 | 2.1% | 2.9% |
| Alabama | 8.3 | 9.7 | 15.5 | 13.5 | 2.5% | 3.3% |
| S Carolina | 7.9 | 10.1 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| Georgia | 7.6 | 10.4 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 1.4% | 1.9% |
| Missouri | 7.6 | 10.4 | 14.8 | 13.2 | 1.2% | 1.8% |
| Arkansas | 6.9 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| Vanderbilt | 6.6 | 11.4 | 15.2 | 15.8 | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| Mississippi | 5.9 | 12.1 | 13.2 | 16.8 | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Southern Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Wofford | 13.4 | 4.6 | 21.0 | 10.0 | 33.4% | 30.2% |
| NC-Grnsboro | 13.3 | 4.7 | 22.3 | 8.7 | 31.2% | 27.9% |
| Furman | 12.4 | 5.6 | 20.2 | 9.8 | 20.8% | 20.5% |
| E Tenn St | 11.1 | 6.9 | 17.2 | 11.8 | 11.0% | 12.6% |
| Mercer | 8.6 | 9.4 | 14.1 | 15.9 | 2.3% | 3.8% |
| Chattanooga | 6.6 | 11.4 | 11.6 | 18.4 | 0.4% | 1.1% |
| Samford | 6.5 | 11.5 | 12.8 | 18.2 | 0.3% | 1.2% |
| Citadel | 6.3 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 17.1 | 0.4% | 1.1% |
| W Carolina | 6.3 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 20.5 | 0.2% | 1.0% |
| VA Military | 5.5 | 12.5 | 11.8 | 18.2 | 0.2% | 0.6% |
| Southland Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Ste F Austin | 15.2 | 2.8 | 22.9 | 6.1 | 68.3% | 56.6% |
| Nicholls St | 10.9 | 7.1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 8.4% | 8.5% |
| Lamar | 10.8 | 7.2 | 18.5 | 12.5 | 6.9% | 9.0% |
| Sam Hous St | 9.5 | 8.5 | 15.7 | 14.3 | 3.5% | 5.5% |
| SE Louisiana | 9.4 | 8.6 | 14.9 | 16.1 | 2.7% | 4.1% |
| Abl Christian | 9.2 | 8.8 | 16.6 | 14.4 | 2.5% | 4.2% |
| McNeese St | 8.9 | 9.1 | 14.0 | 16.0 | 1.7% | 3.1% |
| New Orleans | 8.8 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 15.4 | 2.0% | 2.6% |
| TX A&M-CC | 8.8 | 9.2 | 15.3 | 15.7 | 1.7% | 2.8% |
| Central Ark | 8.0 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 18.6 | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| Houston Bap | 7.3 | 10.7 | 10.8 | 18.2 | 0.7% | 1.2% |
| Incar Word | 5.2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 19.4 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| NW State | 5.1 | 12.9 | 9.9 | 21.1 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Summit Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| S Dakota St | 12.5 | 3.5 | 21.8 | 7.2 | 50.8% | 41.8% |
| South Dakota | 11.2 | 4.8 | 17.6 | 8.4 | 28.0% | 26.6% |
| IPFW | 9.3 | 6.7 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 9.3% | 11.2% |
| N Dakota St | 8.6 | 7.4 | 14.2 | 13.8 | 5.9% | 8.1% |
| Denver | 7.7 | 8.3 | 14.6 | 15.4 | 3.3% | 5.2% |
| Neb Omaha | 6.8 | 9.2 | 12.0 | 17.0 | 1.4% | 3.2% |
| North Dakota | 5.6 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 16.8 | 0.6% | 1.5% |
| Oral Roberts | 5.6 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 20.8 | 0.6% | 1.6% |
| W Illinois | 4.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 18.3 | 0.1% | 0.8% |
| Sun Belt Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| LA Lafayette | 13.4 | 4.6 | 21.3 | 7.7 | 39.1% | 32.9% |
| Georgia St | 12.6 | 5.4 | 19.5 | 9.5 | 28.6% | 27.9% |
| S Alabama | 11.2 | 6.8 | 20.5 | 10.5 | 11.7% | 13.0% |
| GA Southern | 9.5 | 8.5 | 15.4 | 13.6 | 4.8% | 6.7% |
| App State | 9.2 | 8.8 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 4.6% | 5.3% |
| Troy | 8.6 | 9.4 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 2.7% | 3.5% |
| LA Monroe | 8.4 | 9.6 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 3.0% | 3.6% |
| Texas State | 8.1 | 9.9 | 16.1 | 14.9 | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| TX-Arlington | 7.8 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 18.7 | 1.7% | 2.0% |
| Coastal Car | 7.0 | 11.0 | 12.8 | 17.2 | 1.0% | 1.5% |
| AR Lit Rock | 6.5 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 18.4 | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Arkansas St | 5.8 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 19.9 | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| SWAC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| TX Southern | 12.7 | 5.3 | 14.9 | 15.1 | 38.8% | 31.8% |
| Grambling St | 10.9 | 7.1 | 15.4 | 14.6 | 16.5% | 16.7% |
| Prairie View | 10.7 | 7.3 | 13.8 | 17.2 | 14.7% | 15.2% |
| Southern | 9.6 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 8.6% | 9.5% |
| Alabama St | 9.3 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 16.0 | 7.0% | 8.5% |
| Jackson St | 9.0 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 17.9 | 6.3% | 7.5% |
| Ark Pine Bl | 8.6 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 20.0 | 4.9% | 6.2% |
| Miss Val St | 6.9 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 22.9 | 1.6% | 2.5% |
| Alcorn State | 6.6 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 18.8 | 1.2% | 2.1% |
| Alab A&M | 5.7 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 23.8 | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| WAC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| N Mex State | 12.2 | 3.8 | 21.8 | 8.2 | 43.3% | 38.6% |
| Grd Canyon | 11.2 | 4.8 | 18.0 | 10.0 | 26.1% | 25.7% |
| Utah Val St | 10.7 | 5.3 | 18.9 | 11.1 | 19.3% | 20.1% |
| CS Bakersfld | 8.6 | 7.4 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 5.6% | 7.9% |
| California Baptist | 7.4 | 8.6 | 14.0 | 14.0 | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Seattle | 7.2 | 8.8 | 15.6 | 15.4 | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| UMKC | 6.8 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 18.8 | 1.4% | 2.8% |
| TX-Pan Am | 5.0 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 21.4 | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| Chicago St | 2.9 | 13.1 | 4.9 | 24.1 | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| WCC Projected Standings | Conference | Overall | Conference Odds | |||
| Team | W | L | W | L | Reg | Tourn |
| Gonzaga | 13.9 | 2.1 | 24.4 | 4.6 | 68.5% | 58.7% |
| St Marys | 11.4 | 4.6 | 22.0 | 8.0 | 15.9% | 19.1% |
| BYU | 10.8 | 5.2 | 20.7 | 10.3 | 11.7% | 14.6% |
| San Diego | 8.1 | 7.9 | 16.1 | 13.9 | 1.8% | 3.1% |
| San Fransco | 7.4 | 8.6 | 16.0 | 14.0 | 0.9% | 2.0% |
| Pacific | 6.7 | 9.3 | 15.3 | 15.7 | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| Loyola Mymt | 6.7 | 9.3 | 14.6 | 15.4 | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Pepperdine | 5.4 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 15.7 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Santa Clara | 4.9 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 17.7 | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Portland | 4.8 | 11.2 | 13.4 | 17.6 | 0.0% | 0.1% |
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